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Bird flu could trigger world recession: bank CBC \|\| November 4, 2005 A bird flu pandemic in Asia could leave three million dead and lead to economic losses of nearly $300 billion US, according to a worst-case scenario unveiled Thursday by the Asian Development Bank. The report said the illness could push the world into recession and would likely cause the most grief in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. The Manila-based development bank sketched two potential outcomes of a pandemic that it estimates could last about a year, sicken about 20 per cent of the region's population and kill 0.5 per cent of them – the equivalent of three million people. Article Posted at www.KnowledgeDrivenRevolution.com The first scenario paints a picture of an outbreak that seriously affects economic demand for six months and predicts $99.2 billion US in lost consumer spending, trade, services and investment. That's equivalent to a contraction of 2.3 percentage points in regional gross domestic product. The region would lose another $14.2 billion US, or 0.3 percentage points of GDP, due to the death or incapacitation of workers, the report said. The worst-case scenario predicts a pandemic that seriously affects economic demand for a year, could lead to losses of $282.7 billion US, or 6.5 per cent of GDP. Workers' incapacity or death would generate an additional loss of $14.2 billion. "A pandemic will likely slow or halt economic growth in Asia and lead to a significant reduction in trade, particularly of services," the report said. "In the long run, potential economic growth will be lower and poverty will increase." Bird flu has killed at least 62 people in Asia since 2003, with most of the deaths linked to close contact with infected birds. Health officials fear the virus could mutate, allowing it to spread from person to person. Home	Weekly Features Coming Soon: Chicken Little Terror of the Week Propaganda of the week
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Bird flu could trigger world recession: bank

CBC || November 4, 2005

A bird flu pandemic in Asia could leave three million dead and lead to economic losses of nearly $300 billion US, according to a worst-case scenario unveiled Thursday by the Asian Development Bank.

The report said the illness could push the world into recession and would likely cause the most grief in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.

The Manila-based development bank sketched two potential outcomes of a pandemic that it estimates could last about a year, sicken about 20 per cent of the region's population and kill 0.5 per cent of them – the equivalent of three million people.

Article Posted at www.KnowledgeDrivenRevolution.com

The first scenario paints a picture of an outbreak that seriously affects economic demand for six months and predicts $99.2 billion US in lost consumer spending, trade, services and investment. That's equivalent to a contraction of 2.3 percentage points in regional gross domestic product.

The region would lose another $14.2 billion US, or 0.3 percentage points of GDP, due to the death or incapacitation of workers, the report said.

The worst-case scenario predicts a pandemic that seriously affects economic demand for a year, could lead to losses of $282.7 billion US, or 6.5 per cent of GDP. Workers' incapacity or death would generate an additional loss of $14.2 billion.

"A pandemic will likely slow or halt economic growth in Asia and lead to a significant reduction in trade, particularly of services," the report said.

"In the long run, potential economic growth will be lower and poverty will increase."

Bird flu has killed at least 62 people in Asia since 2003, with most of the deaths linked to close contact with infected birds. Health officials fear the virus could mutate, allowing it to spread from person to person.

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Bird flu could trigger world recession: bank

CBC || November 4, 2005

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