Rival polling firms trade barbs over Canadians' views on Mideast: Knowledge Driven Revolution

A spat has erupted between two of the country's prominent pollsters over whether Canadians support Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Mideast policy.

In one corner, the Strategic Counsel firm is standing by a recent survey that suggested only one-third of Canadians shared Harper's staunch pro-Israel stand. In the other corner, the head of the Compas firm says the prime minister enjoys twice that much support and accused his rivals Monday of conducting a "misleading anti-Harper poll."

Compas dismissed reports that support for the Conservative party has taken a pounding during the Lebanon-Israel conflict.

"Canadians are not in an uproar against Harper and they don't repudiate his policies," said Compas president Conrad Winn.

"The only thing we can say categorically is they repudiate Hezbollah."

Compas said its rival invited an anti-Harper response by asking about "Israeli actions" - a term it decried as a hostile-sounding statement that swayed respondents.

In a news release, Compas said subsequent news reports carried so much negative coverage of the prime minister that foreign readers might reasonably conclude Canadians had come to embrace Hezbollah.

But the Strategic Counsel defended its two-week-old findings, and several other industry observers agreed the company had conducted a solid survey.

"The Strategic Counsel has produced a fair and reasonable study of how Canadians feel about some of the issues here," said Bruce Anderson, president of Decima Research.

"The criticisms are not terribly well-founded."

Michael Marzolini, head of the Pollara firm, added: "I'd give very high marks to the (Strategic Counsel) poll on this issue."

Strategic Counsel's managing partner, Tim Woolstencroft, also said he wasn't putting much stock in the Compas poll because of its small sample size. The firm surveyed only 500 Canadians, which is at best half the size of a standard national poll.

It's no secret among political insiders that poll results can vary widely, depending on how questions are phrased and results are tabulated.

"It's not an exact science," said Peter Butler, an expert on public-opinion polling at Dalhousie University.

"Different pollsters can get different information by the questions they ask."

Compas arrived at its conclusion that Canadians supported Harper after asking the following four questions:

-Does Israel have a right to defend itself? (82 per cent responded in the affirmative)

-Was Iran wrong to arm Hezbollah and call for the destruction of Israel? (69 per cent agreed)

-Was Syria wrong to arm Hezbollah and disobey the United Nations resolution requiring Syria to keep guns out of Lebanon? (68 per cent agreed)

-Did Hezbollah in Lebanon start the war? (Just 38 per cent agreed)

Compas then took those four responses, averaged them out, and concluded that 64 per cent of Canadians supported Harper's policy.

One industry insider sneered at that methodology.

"That's certainly stacking the deck," he said.

"Those four policies can't be (averaged). That's like saying the average Canadian has only one testicle."

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Another industry insider took issue with a Compas question about what had motivated Harper's policy.

The Strategic Counsel concluded that only 19 per cent of Canadians believed Harper's position was a principled one, while 53 thought it was designed to mimic the U.S. stand.

Compas came to a very different conclusion. The firm asked respondents whether they believed the government's policy was designed because:

-It wanted to earn U.S. goodwill and protect Canada's economic interests. (21 per cent agreed)

-President Bush is a role model (12 per cent)

-Israel has a right to defend itself (19 per cent)

-Arab extremism is a problem (12 per cent)

-Hezbollah is terrorist (12 per cent)

-Syria and Iran are problems (4 per cent)

Compas then proceeded to add up the final three of those responses and come up with the figure 28 per cent - while leaving separate the President Bush/U.S. responses, which would have reached 33 per cent had they been lumped together.

Butler concurred with the industry insider's view that such methodology was unorthodox: "I agree with that remark entirely," he said.

The prime minister has said he will not be influenced by public-opinion surveys, and is willing to take his lumps if it means doing the right thing.

Even Marzolini - who is a longtime Liberal, as well as a longtime pollster - agrees with the prime minister there.

"If (former prime minister) Mackenzie King had been polling every week and reacting only to the polls, he probably would have made peace with Hitler six times during World War Two," he said.

"Public opinion should not dictate foreign policy."

The Compas poll of 500 respondents is deemed accurate to within 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Strategic Counsel polled 1,000 Canadians between July 27 and 30, and its findings are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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HOME V for Vendetta - R for Reality Canadian Bird Flu Pandemic Looming ? Shill of the Week: Stephan Harper Aspartame: The Sweetest Killer Chicken Little Terrorist of the Week: Creating Fake Terrorists Shill of the Week: Paul Martin The Number 1 Reason YOU became a Slave	Rival polling firms trade barbs over Canadians' views on Mideast CP August 17, 2006 A spat has erupted between two of the country's prominent pollsters over whether Canadians support Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Mideast policy. In one corner, the Strategic Counsel firm is standing by a recent survey that suggested only one-third of Canadians shared Harper's staunch pro-Israel stand. In the other corner, the head of the Compas firm says the prime minister enjoys twice that much support and accused his rivals Monday of conducting a "misleading anti-Harper poll." Compas dismissed reports that support for the Conservative party has taken a pounding during the Lebanon-Israel conflict. "Canadians are not in an uproar against Harper and they don't repudiate his policies," said Compas president Conrad Winn. "The only thing we can say categorically is they repudiate Hezbollah." Compas said its rival invited an anti-Harper response by asking about "Israeli actions" - a term it decried as a hostile-sounding statement that swayed respondents. In a news release, Compas said subsequent news reports carried so much negative coverage of the prime minister that foreign readers might reasonably conclude Canadians had come to embrace Hezbollah. But the Strategic Counsel defended its two-week-old findings, and several other industry observers agreed the company had conducted a solid survey. "The Strategic Counsel has produced a fair and reasonable study of how Canadians feel about some of the issues here," said Bruce Anderson, president of Decima Research. "The criticisms are not terribly well-founded." Michael Marzolini, head of the Pollara firm, added: "I'd give very high marks to the (Strategic Counsel) poll on this issue." Strategic Counsel's managing partner, Tim Woolstencroft, also said he wasn't putting much stock in the Compas poll because of its small sample size. The firm surveyed only 500 Canadians, which is at best half the size of a standard national poll. It's no secret among political insiders that poll results can vary widely, depending on how questions are phrased and results are tabulated. "It's not an exact science," said Peter Butler, an expert on public-opinion polling at Dalhousie University. "Different pollsters can get different information by the questions they ask." Compas arrived at its conclusion that Canadians supported Harper after asking the following four questions: -Does Israel have a right to defend itself? (82 per cent responded in the affirmative) -Was Iran wrong to arm Hezbollah and call for the destruction of Israel? (69 per cent agreed) -Was Syria wrong to arm Hezbollah and disobey the United Nations resolution requiring Syria to keep guns out of Lebanon? (68 per cent agreed) -Did Hezbollah in Lebanon start the war? (Just 38 per cent agreed) Compas then took those four responses, averaged them out, and concluded that 64 per cent of Canadians supported Harper's policy. One industry insider sneered at that methodology. "That's certainly stacking the deck," he said. "Those four policies can't be (averaged). That's like saying the average Canadian has only one testicle." Read the full article here Article Continued... Another industry insider took issue with a Compas question about what had motivated Harper's policy. The Strategic Counsel concluded that only 19 per cent of Canadians believed Harper's position was a principled one, while 53 thought it was designed to mimic the U.S. stand. Compas came to a very different conclusion. The firm asked respondents whether they believed the government's policy was designed because: -It wanted to earn U.S. goodwill and protect Canada's economic interests. (21 per cent agreed) -President Bush is a role model (12 per cent) -Israel has a right to defend itself (19 per cent) -Arab extremism is a problem (12 per cent) -Hezbollah is terrorist (12 per cent) -Syria and Iran are problems (4 per cent) Compas then proceeded to add up the final three of those responses and come up with the figure 28 per cent - while leaving separate the President Bush/U.S. responses, which would have reached 33 per cent had they been lumped together. Butler concurred with the industry insider's view that such methodology was unorthodox: "I agree with that remark entirely," he said. The prime minister has said he will not be influenced by public-opinion surveys, and is willing to take his lumps if it means doing the right thing. Even Marzolini - who is a longtime Liberal, as well as a longtime pollster - agrees with the prime minister there. "If (former prime minister) Mackenzie King had been polling every week and reacting only to the polls, he probably would have made peace with Hitler six times during World War Two," he said. "Public opinion should not dictate foreign policy." The Compas poll of 500 respondents is deemed accurate to within 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Strategic Counsel polled 1,000 Canadians between July 27 and 30, and its findings are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Broken Link? If the link to the original article is broken or has been altered you can view the article by clicking the "Expand/Collapse" button below. About KDR \| \| Home \| \| Weekly Features Archive	Weekly Features Archive
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