One Thousand Years of Stability
Global Warming Memory Hole Part 1

Brent Jessop - Knowledge Driven Revolution.com
September 22, 2007

The history of any particular science, especially the popular ones, is an interesting thing to study because of the constantly changing logic and over or under emphasis of 'facts' to fit into a preconceived theory. These abuses are very revealing when trying to determine whether someone is genuinely trying to explain what is actually happening or is just trying to push a particular theory, whatever their motivations may be.

The greenhouse gas theory of global warming is a great example of this, mostly because of the huge money and political power behind it. Below is a small comparison between the 1994 (first edition) and the 2004 (third edition) of a book called Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. The author, Sir John Houghton, was the chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific Assessment Working Group from 1988-1992 and co-chairman from 1992-2002. Among many other things he was also the President of the Royal Meteorological Society and Professor of Atmospheric Physics at Oxford University.

1000 Years Before 1994

The temperature record for the 1000 years before 1994 (first edition) was pieced together by the following method.

"Most thermometers in use two hundred years ago were not well calibrated or carefully exposed. However, many diarists and writers kept records at different times; from a wide variety of sources weather and climate information can be pieced together. Indirect sources, such as are provided by ice cores, tree rings and records of lake levels, of glacier advance and retreat or of pollen distribution in the past, can also yield information to assist in building up the whole climatic story. From a variety of sources, for instance, it has been possible to put together a systematic atlas of weather patterns covering the last five hundred years for China."

What were the results?

"Similarly, from direct and indirect sources... a record of the average temperatures for Central England for the past thousand years (Fig. 4.3) [right]. Its main features are of a medieval warm period between about AD1100 and 1300 when vines were grown as far north as Yorkshire, and the 'Little Ice Age' between about AD1400 and 1850, during which freezing of the Thames in winter was not uncommon There is plenty of evidence that the 'Little Ice Age' extended throughout Europe and North America; indications from glaciers in other parts of the world including the southern hemisphere suggest that it could have been experienced worldwide."

1000 Years Before 2004

The temperature record for the 1000 years before 2004 (third edition) was pieced together by the following method.

"Most thermometers in use 200 years ago were not well calibrated or carefully exposed. However, many diarists and writers kept records at different times; from a wide variety of sources weather and climate information can be pieced together. Indirect sources, such as are provided by ice cores, tree rings and records of lake levels, of glacier advance and retreat, and of pollen distribution, can also yield information to assist in building up the whole climatic story. From a variety of sources, for instance, it has been possible to put together for China a systematic atlas of weather patterns covering the last 500 years."

So far nothing has changed since 1994. What were the results in 2004?

"Similarly, from direct and indirect sources, it has been possible to deduce the average temperature over the Northern Hemisphere for the last millennium (Figure 4.3) [right]. Sufficient data are not available for the same reconstruction to be carried out over the Southern Hemisphere. In Figure 4.3 it is just possible to identify the 'Medieval Warm Period' associated with the eleventh to fourteenth centuries and a relatively cool period the 'Little Ice Age' associated with the fifteenth to nineteenth centuries. These only affected part of the Northern Hemisphere and are therefore more prominent in local records, for instance those from central England."

A lot has been written about the absurdity of the 2004 'Hockey Stick' graph so I won't say much except that we knew that there was strong evidence of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age from China, "throughout Europe and North America", and the Vikings in Greenland. So, the other areas of the northern hemisphere would have had to have been extremely cold during the Medieval Warm Period and extremely hot during the Little Ice Age to produce a graph resembling a hockey stick.

The focus of this article is to highlight how the significance of this period in history was distorted to fit the greenhouse gas theory of global warming. That is, no matter what the 'facts' were, they were forced to fit the theory.

Continuing from the 2004 quote above:

"The increase in temperature over the twentieth century is particularly striking. The 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade of the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere and 1998 is likely to have been the warmest year."

Based on the 2004 graph this statement is not overly misleading. But what about the 1994 graph? Should it not have equally been evidence that the current warming was very tame compared to the large natural variation of the recent past? Where were the calm sober words of the even handed scientist? Should it not have been reason to breath a sigh of relief that we are no where near record temperatures?

How Much Variation is Natural?

The large variations of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age was explained in 1994:

"There is as yet no certain explanation for these warm and cold periods... Nor can it be suggested that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have been the cause of change; for the millennium before 1800 their concentration in the atmosphere was rather stable, the carbon dioxide concentration, for instance, varying by less than 3 per cent. The most likely cause is, in fact, not due to any factors external to the atmosphere. As with the shorter-term changes mentioned earlier, such variations of climate can arise naturally from internal variations within the atmosphere and the oceans and in the two-way relationship - coupling - between them."

The almost none existent variation of the Hockey Stick graph was explained in 2004:

"Although there is as yet no certain explanation for the variations that occurred between 1000 and 1900, it is clear that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane cannot have been the cause of change. For the millennium before 1800 their concentration in the atmosphere was rather stable, the carbon dioxide concentration, for instance, varying by less than three per cent... As with the shorter-term changes mentioned earlier, such variations of climate can arise naturally from internal variations within the atmosphere and the ocean and in the two-way relationship - coupling - between them."

Again, almost word for word the exact same explanation for a huge unknown climate variation or a tiny unknown variation. But the obvious bias toward defending a particular theory compared with an honest attempt at understanding reality is provided by the very next sentence in the 2004 quote.

"The millennial record of Figure 4.3 [the Hockey Stick graph] is particularly important because it provides an indication of the range and character of climate variability that arises from natural causes."

Would the millennial record of 1994 not have provided the same information about the range and variability of natural climate changes? Would it not have been pleasant news for anyone worried that our current climate was out of control? Or was it unwanted contradictory evidence marginalized and then erased from history?

Size Matters

Evidence contradicting the theory you are pushing needs to be as marginalized as much as possible. This is evident by the treatment of the 1994 compared to the 2004 millennial graphs. Below is a picture of the page with each graph. Does size matter?

Note: For those who are curious, the second edition of 1997 was almost word for word identical to the first edition.

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One Thousand Years of Stability Global Warming Memory Hole Part 1

One Thousand Years of Stability
Global Warming Memory Hole Part 1